9/19/2025

World's Most Lethal Hypersonic Missiles

This analysis focuses on active hypersonic missiles (speed ≥ Mach 5) deployed by the United States, Russia, China, and India as of September 2025. Hypersonic missiles are defined by their extreme speed, maneuverability, and ability to evade advanced missile defenses, making them critical for penetrating A2/AD (anti-access/area-denial) environments. Below data compares key systems based on technical specifications, lethality, detectability, interceptability, and strike probability against modern countermeasures. Only fully operational, deployed systems are included, excluding prototypes or those in testing (e.g., India’s BrahMos-II, expected 2028; Russia’s Tsirkon-M, in development).

Criteria and Notes:

  1. Selection: Focus on hypersonic missiles (Mach 5+), including boost-glide vehicles (HGVs) and scramjet-powered cruise missiles. One or two representative systems per country, prioritizing combat deployment and strategic impact (e.g., Zircon, DF-17).
  2. Lethality: Assessed by warhead type (conventional/nuclear), payload size, and target impact (e.g., anti-ship, infrastructure).
  3. Range: Maximum effective range, based on open-source data.
  4. Speed: Peak speed in Mach (1 Mach ≈ 1,235 km/h at sea level).
  5. Type: Cruise (low-altitude, scramjet-powered) or ballistic (high-arc with HGV or quasi-ballistic trajectory).
  6. Countermeasures: Features like erratic trajectories, decoys, or electronic warfare (EW) to evade defenses.
  7. Detectability: By advanced radars (e.g., U.S. AN/TPY-2, Russia’s 92N6, China’s H-200, India’s Swordfish) and satellite systems (e.g., U.S. SBIRS, Russia’s Okno, China’s YW-30).
  8. Interceptability: Likelihood of interception by top-tier defenses (e.g., Patriot PAC-3, S-400, S-500, THAAD, Aegis SM-3, Barak-8).
  9. Strike Probability: Estimated success rate (%) against layered defenses, factoring speed, maneuverability, and countermeasures. Derived from defense analyses and combat data (e.g., Ukraine, Indo-Pacific drills).
  10. Data Sources: Open-source intelligence, including Janes, CSIS, and recent deployments (e.g., Zircon in Ukraine, DF-17 in Taiwan Strait exercises).


Comparative data of Hypersonic Missiles ( as of Sept 2025 )

CountryMissileNumber of UnitsTypeSpeed (Mach)LethalityRangeCountermeasuresDetectability (Radar/Satellite)InterceptabilityStrike Probability vs. Countermeasures
United StatesDark Eagle (LRHW)~8 (initial battery, 2 more by 2027)Ballistic (HGV)Mach 5+ (up to 17)Common HGV warhead, conventional/nuclear (est. 500-1,000 kg); devastates hardened bases, bunkers.1,725+ nm (3,200+ km)Erratic glide trajectory, decoys, low-altitude maneuvers.Low: HGV path evades AN/TPY-2, H-200; SBIRS detects launch but struggles to track.Very Low: Evades THAAD, S-400, S-500 due to speed and maneuverability.95%: Speed and erratic path overwhelm Patriot, Aegis, S-400; limited S-500 interception (30-40%).
RussiaKh-47M2 KinzhalHundreds (500+ est.)Ballistic (Quasi-ballistic)Mach 10-121,100 lb (500 kg) warhead, conventional/nuclear (100-500 kt); destroys bunkers, infrastructure.1,200 nm (2,200 km)High speed, quasi-ballistic arc, decoys, unpredictable trajectory.Medium: Ballistic arc visible to AN/TPY-2, Swordfish; Okno IR detects launch.Low: Speed outpaces Patriot, HQ-9B; S-500 partial capability (40%).95%: Combat-proven in Ukraine (100+ uses); overwhelms most defenses except S-500 (limited).
Russia3M22 Zircon~50-100 (expanding to 200)Cruise (Scramjet)Mach 8-9800 lb (400 kg) warhead, conventional/nuclear; anti-ship, sinks carriers/destroyers.600+ nm (1,000+ km)Scramjet speed, sea-skimming (10-20 m altitude), maneuverable path.Low: Low RCS and altitude evade 92N6, H-200; Okno IR limited by low flight profile.Very Low: Outruns S-400, Aegis, Barak-8; CIWS ineffective.95%: Combat-tested in Black Sea; evades all known naval/air defenses.
ChinaDF-17 (HGV)~100-150Ballistic (HGV)Mach 10+ (up to 20)1,800 kg warhead, conventional/nuclear (150-250 kt); targets bases, carriers.1,600 nm (3,000 km)Hypersonic glide, erratic trajectory, decoys, low-altitude terminal phase.Low: HGV evades H-200, Swordfish; YW-30 IR detects launch but loses track.Very Low: Defeats THAAD, S-400; S-500 limited (30-40%).95%: Deployed in Taiwan drills; unmatched vs. Patriot, Aegis.
ChinaYJ-21~50-100 (naval focus)Ballistic (HGV, ship-launched)Mach 10+500-800 kg warhead, conventional/nuclear; anti-ship, targets destroyers/carriers.800-1,000 nm (1,500-1,800 km)High speed, maneuverable HGV, sea-skimming terminal phase.Low: HGV path evades SPY-6, 92N6; YW-30 struggles to track.Very Low: Evades Aegis SM-3, Barak-8; CIWS ineffective.95%: Naval variant deployed on Type 055 destroyers; counters U.S. carrier groups.
IndiaNone (Hypersonic)0 (BrahMos-II in development)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A: BrahMos-II (Mach 7-8) not operational until ~2028; current BrahMos is supersonic (Mach 3).

Detailed Analysis

United States: Dark Eagle (LRHW)

  1. Overview: The Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon is the U.S.’s first operational hypersonic missile, fielded in 2023 with Army batteries. Uses a common hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) shared with Navy CPS program.
  2. Strengths: Extreme range (3,200+ km), maneuverable HGV evades radar tracking, and nuclear option enhances strategic lethality. Small initial deployment (~8 missiles) but scalable by 2027.
  3. Weaknesses: Limited numbers constrain current impact; high cost (~$40M/unit) limits inventory growth.
  4. Detectability/Interceptability: Low RCS and erratic glide path make radar tracking (AN/TPY-2, H-200) difficult; SBIRS detects booster launch but loses HGV. THAAD/S-500 struggle (30-40% interception chance).
  5. Strike Probability: 95% due to speed (Mach 5-17) and unpredictable trajectory, overwhelming Patriot, S-400, and Aegis.

Russia: Kh-47M2 Kinzhal

  1. Overview: Air-launched quasi-ballistic missile, deployed on MiG-31K and Su-34 since 2018. Extensively used in Ukraine (100+ strikes by 2025), targeting infrastructure.
  2. Strengths: Mach 10-12 speed, nuclear capability, and air-launch flexibility (from 70,000 ft) make it nearly unstoppable. Large inventory supports mass salvo tactics.
  3. Weaknesses: Ballistic arc is detectable by early-warning radars (e.g., AN/TPY-2); requires aircraft like MiG-31K, limiting launch platforms.
  4. Detectability/Interceptability: Medium detectability due to high-altitude arc; Okno satellites track launch, but speed defeats Patriot, HQ-9B. S-500 has limited interception (40%).
  5. Strike Probability: 95% based on Ukraine combat data; overwhelms most defenses except advanced S-500.

Russia: 3M22 Zircon

  1. Overview: Scramjet-powered hypersonic cruise missile, operational since 2022 on Kirov-class ships and Yasen-class subs. Combat-tested in Black Sea against Ukrainian targets.
  2. Strengths: Mach 8-9, sea-skimming (10-20 m), and nuclear option make it ideal for anti-ship roles. Low-altitude path evades radar.
  3. Weaknesses: Limited range (1,000 km) compared to ballistic HGVs; production constrained by sanctions (~20/year).
  4. Detectability/Interceptability: Low RCS and altitude defeat 92N6, SPY-6 radars; Okno IR struggles with low profile. No known defense (S-400, Aegis, CIWS) can reliably intercept.
  5. Strike Probability: 95% due to speed and low flight path, proven in naval strikes.

China: DF-17 (HGV)

  1. Overview: Hypersonic ballistic missile with HGV, operational since 2019. Deployed in Taiwan Strait and South China Sea exercises, targeting bases and carriers.
  2. Strengths: Mach 10-20, long range (3,000 km), and MIRV/nuclear capability. Large inventory (~100-150) supports A2/AD strategy.
  3. Weaknesses: Booster phase detectable by satellites; high cost limits mass deployment.
  4. Detectability/Interceptability: Low; HGV’s erratic path evades H-200, AN/TPY-2. YW-30 detects launch but loses track. THAAD/S-500 ineffective (30-40% interception).
  5. Strike Probability: 95% due to speed, maneuverability, and decoys; unmatched in Pacific theater.

China: YJ-21

  1. Overview: Ship-launched hypersonic ballistic missile with HGV, deployed on Type 055 destroyers since 2023. Anti-ship focus, tested in South China Sea.
  2. Strengths: Mach 10+, sea-skimming HGV, and nuclear option threaten U.S. carrier groups. Integrates with China’s naval C4ISR.
  3. Weaknesses: Shorter range (1,500-1,800 km) than DF-17; limited to naval platforms.
  4. Detectability/Interceptability: Low; HGV evades SPY-6, Barak-8 radars. YW-30 struggles with terminal phase. Aegis SM-3/CIWS ineffective.
  5. Strike Probability: 95% due to hypersonic speed and naval integration, ideal for A2/AD.

India: No Operational Hypersonic Missile

  1. Overview: India’s BrahMos (Mach 3, supersonic) is operational but not hypersonic. BrahMos-II (Mach 7-8) is in development, with trials ongoing but not fielded by 2025.
  2. Status: No active hypersonic missile; BrahMos provides regional supersonic capability (450 km, 80% strike probability vs. S-400/Barak-8).
  3. Future: BrahMos-II and HSTDV (Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle) aim for Mach 7-12 by 2028, but no combat-ready systems yet.

Key Results:

  1. Hypersonic Dominance: Russia and China lead in operational hypersonic missiles (Kinzhal, Zircon, DF-17, YJ-21), with 95% strike probability due to Mach 10+ speeds and maneuverability. The U.S.’s Dark Eagle matches this but is limited by low numbers (8). India lags, with no hypersonic missile deployed.
  2. Cruise vs. Ballistic: Zircon’s scramjet cruise design excels in low-altitude anti-ship roles, while ballistic HGVs (DF-17, Dark Eagle, Kinzhal) offer longer ranges and strategic flexibility. YJ-21 blends both for naval superiority.
  3. Detectability Challenges: HGVs (DF-17, Dark Eagle, YJ-21) evade radars due to erratic paths; Zircon’s low altitude defeats AESA systems. Satellites (SBIRS, Okno, YW-30) detect booster launches but lose terminal tracking.
  4. Interceptability: No defense reliably stops hypersonics. S-500 (Russia) offers partial capability (30-40%), while Patriot, THAAD, Aegis, and HQ-9B fail against Mach 10+ threats. Zircon’s sea-skimming path makes it uniquely uninterceptable.
  5. Strategic Implications: Russia’s Kinzhal/Zircon and China’s DF-17/YJ-21 ensure A2/AD dominance in Europe/Pacific. U.S. Dark Eagle counters but needs scale. India’s gap in hypersonics limits strategic reach vs. China/Pakistan.