9/10/2025

The Rise of BRICS Dominance

In the evolving landscape of global geopolitics and economics, India's potential shift away from U.S. alignment toward deeper integration with the EU, China, Russia, and South-South countries represents a pivotal moment. Building on the previous analysis, which highlighted U.S. losses in influence, trade, and USD dominance, 2025 data underscores accelerating trends favoring BRICS. As of mid-2025, BRICS+ (including new members and partners) accounts for approximately 41% of global GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP), surpassing the G7's 30% share.

This growth, driven by robust performances from India (projected 6.2% GDP growth), China (4%), and Ethiopia (6.6%), positions BRICS as a counterweight to Western economic hegemony.

Intra-BRICS trade has surged to $614.8 billion, reflecting a 24% share of global exchanges, while de-dollarization efforts gain traction through mechanisms like local currency settlements.

India, as the fourth-largest economy with a GDP of $4.19 trillion and poised to become third by 2027, stands to benefit immensely from this pivot.

Its strategic autonomy, demographic advantages, and digital prowess align seamlessly with BRICS goals, fostering equitable partnerships free from U.S.-imposed conditions. Here, we used 2025 data from various sources to explore the Russia-India-China (RIC) formation, infrastructure developments, intra-BRICS trade mechanisms, targeted investments from China and Russia, and an analysis of top imports/exports. Concluding with how these elements are propelling a global power shift toward BRICS, rendering Western dominance obsolete.

RIC Formation: Reviving the Primakov Triangle for Multipolar Strength

The Russia-India-China (RIC) troika, originally proposed by Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov in 1998, has seen a resurgence in 2025 amid U.S. tariff threats and geopolitical tensions. At the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin in August 2025, RIC discussions emphasized reviving the mechanism to counter Western isolationism.

Intra-RIC trade reached an estimated $452 billion in 2023, with projections for 2025 indicating growth to over $500 billion, driven by energy, defense, and technology exchanges.

For India, RIC offers a platform to balance its $99.2 billion trade deficit with China in FY2024-25, where imports surged to $113.5 billion while exports lagged at $14.3 billion.

Bilateral India-Russia trade hit a record $68.7 billion in FY2025, dominated by discounted oil imports (40% of India's needs), reducing vulnerability to Western energy sanctions.

RIC's focus on mutual growth—through joint ventures in renewables and infrastructure—helps India diversify away from U.S. dependencies, where tariffs under Trump threaten $132 billion in bilateral trade.

In 2025, RIC has facilitated technology transfers, with China aiding India's semiconductor ambitions and Russia supporting nuclear and space programs, despite U.S. obstacles.

This trilateral cooperation strengthens BRICS' multipolar vision, where India leads Global South initiatives, fostering equitable norms over Western-led institutions like the IMF.

As Russia pivots to Asia post-Ukraine, projecting 1.3-1.6% growth for 2025-2027, RIC insulates members from sanctions, enhancing collective resilience.

Trade Infrastructure: Pipelines, Highways, and Connectivity Boosting BRICS Integration

Infrastructure projects in 2025 are cementing BRICS' trade highways and energy pipelines, reducing reliance on Western routes. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has seen record engagements worth $123.3 billion in the first half of 2025, including corridors linking India, China, and Russia.

Key developments include the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200-km multimodal route from India to Russia via Iran, slashing transit times by 40% and costs by 30%.

Gas pipelines like the Power of Siberia 2, connecting Russia to China via Mongolia, and extensions to India, ensure energy security amid U.S. sanctions.

In South-South connectivity, Brazil and South Africa are integrated through BRICS-backed projects, such as the BRICS subsea cable for digital infrastructure, enhancing data flows and reducing Western tech dominance.

India's Atmanirbhar Bharat benefits from these, attracting EU and Chinese investments in manufacturing and renewables, supporting a projected 6.2% growth.

These initiatives, financed by the New Development Bank (NDB)—which approved 96 projects worth $32.8 billion by 2025—prioritize sustainable development.

NDB's $40 billion portfolio includes Brazil's electricity modernization and India's climate adaptation, fostering intra-BRICS trade while bypassing USD vulnerabilities.

BRICS as the Most Powerful Trade Block: Intra-Trade Mechanisms and Preferential Policies

BRICS is transforming into the world's most influential trade block in 2025, with mechanisms mandating preferential intra-trade, such as buying oils and products from members first. The BRICS Multilateral Guarantee (BMG) fund, backed by NDB, lowers financing costs for investments, targeting $1.115 billion for projects like Brazil's infrastructure rebuilding.

De-dollarization has reduced USD usage in intra-BRICS trade to one-third, with proposals for a blockchain-based token for commodities like oil.

Mandatory BRICS-first policies, discussed at the 2025 Rio summit, prioritize member oils (e.g., Russia's to India) and products, boosting trade volumes to 35% of global GDP.

This shields against U.S. tariffs, which threaten $857.56 billion in US-BRICS trade, allowing India to diversify exports.

BRICS Intra-Trade MechanismImpact on Power Shift
Local Currency SettlementsReduces USD dependency; India-Russia oil in INR/Ruble.
Mandatory Member SourcingOils from Russia/BRICS first; cuts Western imports by 20%.
NDB Guarantees$40B in projects; lowers costs for sustainable infra.

Chinese Investments in India: Bridging Deficits and Enhancing Cooperation

China's investments in India surged in 2025, reaching $3.2 billion cumulatively since 2015, focusing on renewables and infrastructure to settle the $99.2 billion deficit.


Joint ventures in electronics and EVs, amid warming ties, reduce India's import reliance while transferring technology.


Bilateral trade hit $131.84 billion, with China easing barriers for Indian goods like pesticides and meat.



This cooperation aligns with BRICS' equitable agenda, helping India achieve self-reliance in semiconductors and solar, countering U.S. de-risking.



Russian Investments: Deepening Ties and Sanction Neutralization

Russia's $2.5 billion cumulative investments in India by March 2025 target energy and defense, with trade aiming for $100 billion by 2030.


Joint projects in nuclear tech and renewables insulate against sanctions, boosting India's $68.7 billion bilateral trade.



Top 10 Imports/Exports: Neutralizing Western Influence and Amplifying BRICS Power

Analyzing 2025 top imports/exports reveals BRICS' strategy to neutralize U.S. Influence . India's top exports (petroleum, minerals) to China/Russia counter deficits, while imports (electronics, machinery) are offset via intra-BRICS sourcing.



Top BRICS Exports (2025 est.)

China: Electronics ($2T)

China's dominance in electronics, including semiconductors, smartphones, and consumer gadgets, continues to drive its export economy. In 2023, China's share of BRICS exports was over 70%, with electronics forming a significant portion, projected to reach $2 trillion in 2025 due to global demand and supply chain resilience. This strengthens intra-BRICS trade, particularly with India, which imports $113.5 billion in Chinese electronics to fuel its digital economy.

India: Petroleum ($200B)

India's refined petroleum exports, leveraging its large refining capacity, are projected to reach $200 billion in 2025, driven by demand from BRICS partners like China and South-South countries. India's trade with BRICS surged to $399 billion in 2024, with petroleum exports growing due to Russia's discounted crude supply.

Russia: Oil ($300B)

Russia's crude oil exports, a cornerstone of its economy, are estimated at $300 billion for 2025, with India and China as primary buyers. Russia accounts for 59% of India’s oil imports, facilitated by INR-Ruble settlements, bypassing U.S. sanctions. This strengthens BRICS' energy security and de-dollarization efforts.

Brazil: Agricultural Goods ($150B)

Brazil's agricultural exports, including soybeans, beef, and sugar, are projected to reach $150 billion in 2025. As a leading producer, Brazil supplies China and India, reducing reliance on Western markets and countering U.S. tariffs.

South Africa: Minerals ($80B)

South Africa’s exports of rare minerals and metals, such as platinum and gold, are estimated at $80 billion in 2025. These are critical for BRICS partners like China and India in electronics and renewable energy sectors, enhancing intra-BRICS supply chains.

China: Machinery ($500B)

China’s machinery exports, including industrial equipment and construction machinery, are projected at $500 billion, supporting infrastructure projects like BRI and INSTC across BRICS nations.

India: IT Services ($120B)

India’s IT and software services, a global leader, are expected to reach $120 billion in exports by 2025. These services cater to BRICS markets, particularly South Africa and Brazil, reducing dependence on U.S. tech contracts.

Russia: Natural Gas ($100B)

Russia’s natural gas exports, projected at $100 billion, are increasingly directed to BRICS partners via pipelines like Power of Siberia 2. This ensures energy stability for India and China, countering Western sanctions.

Brazil: Iron Ore ($60B)

Brazil’s iron ore exports, vital for China’s industrial sector, are estimated at $60 billion in 2025, supporting BRICS’ manufacturing growth and reducing Western import reliance.

South Africa: Chemicals ($50B)

South Africa’s chemical exports, including fertilizers, are projected at $50 billion, with growing demand from India and Brazil for agricultural inputs, bolstering intra-BRICS trade resilience.

Analysis and Impact on BRICS Power

This export profile highlights BRICS’ complementary strengths: China’s industrial dominance, Russia’s energy resources, India’s refining and IT prowess, Brazil’s agricultural and mineral wealth, and South Africa’s critical minerals. By prioritizing intra-BRICS sourcing—e.g., India buying Russian oil, China importing Brazilian soybeans—the bloc reduces exposure to U.S. sanctions, which threaten $857.56 billion in US-BRICS trade. The New Development Bank’s $40 billion portfolio and local currency trade mechanisms further insulate BRICS, with INR, Rubles, and Yuan settlements cutting USD usage by one-third.This strategic export alignment, coupled with infrastructure like INSTC and BRI, positions BRICS to capture 35% of global trade by 2025, diminishing Western economic leverage and accelerating a multipolar world order.


Top BRICS Imports (2025 est.)

China: Crude Oil ($400B)

China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, is projected to import $400 billion worth in 2025, primarily from Russia and BRICS+ partners like Saudi Arabia. This supports China’s industrial base and reduces reliance on Western suppliers, aligning with de-dollarization efforts using Yuan-based settlements.

India: Electronics ($120B)

India’s electronics imports, mainly from China, are estimated at $120 billion in 2025, driven by demand for semiconductors and consumer electronics. The $99.2 billion trade deficit with China in FY2024-25 underscores this reliance, but intra-BRICS investments are reducing dependency through joint ventures.

Russia: Machinery ($80B)

Russia’s machinery imports, projected at $80 billion, include industrial equipment and technology from China and India. These imports support Russia’s infrastructure and defense sectors, bypassing U.S. sanctions through BRICS trade networks.

Brazil: Chemicals ($60B)

Brazil’s chemical imports, including fertilizers and pharmaceuticals, are estimated at $60 billion in 2025. South Africa and China supply these, strengthening intra-BRICS agricultural and industrial chains while countering U.S. tariff impacts.

South Africa: Refined Petroleum ($40B)

South Africa imports refined petroleum, projected at $40 billion, largely from India’s refineries, which leverage Russian crude. This intra-BRICS energy trade reduces exposure to Western sanctions and supports South Africa’s energy needs.

China: Agricultural Goods ($150B)

China’s agricultural imports, including soybeans and meat from Brazil, are projected at $150 billion. This supports China’s food security and strengthens South-South trade, reducing reliance on U.S. agricultural exports.

India: Crude Oil ($100B)

India’s crude oil imports, estimated at $100 billion, primarily from Russia (40% of supply), are critical for its refining industry. INR-based trade with Russia mitigates U.S. sanctions and supports India’s energy security.

Russia: Electronics ($50B)

Russia’s electronics imports, projected at $50 billion, come largely from China, supporting its technology sector. This intra-BRICS flow counters Western tech restrictions and enhances Russia’s resilience.

Brazil: Vehicles ($45B)

Brazil’s vehicle imports, estimated at $45 billion, include automotive components from China and India. This supports Brazil’s transport sector and reduces dependence on U.S. and European suppliers.

South Africa: Machinery ($30B)

South Africa’s machinery imports, projected at $30 billion, are sourced from China and India, supporting its mining and industrial sectors. This intra-BRICS trade mitigates U.S. tariff pressures and fosters bloc integration.


Analysis and Impact on BRICS Power

The import profile of BRICS nations demonstrates their complementary economic needs, enabling a robust intra-BRICS trade ecosystem. China’s demand for crude oil and agricultural goods aligns with Russia’s and Brazil’s export strengths, while India’s electronics and oil imports are met by China and Russia, respectively. South Africa’s reliance on refined petroleum and machinery is supported by India and China, creating a self-reinforcing trade network. This synergy, bolstered by initiatives like the New Development Bank’s $40 billion portfolio and local currency settlements (e.g., INR-Ruble for India-Russia trade), reduces vulnerability to U.S. sanctions and tariffs, which threaten $857.56 billion in US-BRICS trade.By prioritizing intra-BRICS sourcing—e.g., India importing Russian oil, China buying Brazilian soybeans—the bloc is projected to account for 35% of global trade by 2025, diminishing Western economic leverage. The RIC (Russia-India-China) formation further enhances this, with $500 billion in intra-RIC trade, supported by infrastructure like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. These imports, facilitated by BRICS-first policies and de-dollarization (reducing USD usage by one-third), position BRICS to challenge the U.S.-led financial order, fostering a multipolar world.


Global Trade Shift to BRICS with Western Decline

In 2025, BRICS' expansion to 44% of global GDP and de-dollarization mark a tectonic shift, As Western power diminishes amid internal issues, BRICS emerges dominant, with India leading a multipolar order independent of U.S. geopolitics.


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