India: The Cornerstone of a New World Order

India: The Cornerstone of a New World Order

A Global Swing State that will decide how world order transition

India, a nation strategically positioned between East and West, is a vibrant democracy that attracts millions worldwide with its openness to diverse ideas. Its dynamic economy and ambitious populace are committed to pursuing a developmental path for personal growth and nation-building. India’s economy is projected to sustain growth rates of 6–9% annually, positioning it to potentially become the world’s largest economy by 2050.The rivalry between the United States (representing the Western world) and China (representing the Eastern world) is intensifying rapidly, fueled by the East’s economic progress. Trade wars have become a common strategy to curb this growth. Geopolitical tensions, and potentially regional or global conflicts, could accelerate the decline of U.S. influence by 2035, reducing its global standing to a level comparable to Britain’s, struggling with domestic challenges, internal pressures, and the potential abandonment of allies. A plausible NATO-Russia conflict could further weaken the Western world, paving the way for the emergence of Asian power centers like India and China. In such a scenario, China is likely to act opportunistically, supporting Russia to undermine the West while seizing the chance to capture Taiwan and Superpower Status without direct military engagement with Western powers.Amid these dynamics, India emerges as a pivotal player in the global balance of power. Below, we analyze the key factors and their implications in the power play among superpowers, exploring how these developments could propel India to superpower status in Asia alongside Russia and China.

India Sides with U.S and become a subordinate or vassal state without any Strategic Autonomy:

If India, at any point in the present or future, becomes a subordinate or vassal state of the United States, its leadership would be compelled to follow the directives of the U.S. and the broader Western coalition. This would mean the West imposing its hegemonic views on India, expecting the nation to uphold the Western world order and support its global supremacy. Such a scenario would pit India against key adversaries of the Western world, such as Russia and China. Indian media and news outlets would likely be saturated with Western agendas, portraying Russia and China as perpetual enemies, much like how Pakistan views India. If this psychological campaign succeeds, it could foster a generational perception among Indians that Russia and China are adversaries, leading to ongoing tensions with these neighboring countries and potentially sparking conflicts.Wars between India and China would undermine the rise of these two emerging superpowers. Neither China nor India can sustain an eternal enmity, as both civilizations have coexisted in Asia for thousands of years with minimal friction. A conflict-driven decline of these resource-rich, populous, intellectually advanced, and industrious competitors would allow the Western world to remain unscathed, maintaining its global hegemony without significant challenges. By pitting India and China against each other, the West could ensure its dominance continues unchallenged.

India Does not takes sides and enforce its Strategic Autonomy:

India Maintains Friendly Relations with All Major Powers Without Aligning with Any Single Nation:India’s approach of fostering friendly relations with both emerging and established global powers, without aligning exclusively with any, positions it as a preferred economic partner for many countries. Nations worldwide are eager to engage in business with India, free from pressure by hegemonic powers like the United States. With a population of 1.4 billion, India possesses the intellectual capacity to advance its economy, technology, and military strength, potentially surpassing any current superpower. However, India faces internal and structural challenges, such as implementing reforms to overhaul its infrastructure—including land, sea, and air corridors—to support global trade in the long term.By maintaining strategic autonomy, India can make independent choices and cultivate balanced relationships with all major world powers, emerging as a respected superpower, akin to an elephant commanding respect in the jungle. This shift will tilt the global balance of power toward Asia, compelling the Western world to reconsider its perspective on the region and recognize India, China, and Russia as Asian superpowers. The West will need to learn to coexist with these powers without imposing its hegemony, as Asia’s influence, driven by these nations, becomes inevitable.As the Western world order experiences a certain level of decline, it will learn to engage with India respectfully and avoid antagonizing it, acknowledging India’s growing global stature.

India Forms RIC with Russia, China keeping its Strategic Autonomy:

India’s will have strong relations with superpower Russia and superpower China, while managing friction with the West but fostering improved ties, position it to benefit significantly from an interconnected Asian economy and the influential Russia-India-China (RIC) group. This alliance could shape a new world order, with China potentially leading as the dominant economic player until 2035, after which India may surpass China by 2040. Alternatively, China’s decline could stem from manufacturing saturation, declining product quality, or a shrinking young population. Russia, leveraging its Soviet-era foundation in weapons development and its vast oil and gas resources, will remain a major superpower. Its leadership in oil and gas production and weapons innovation will ensure it remains a leading global supplier, driving significant economic growth from this region.The RIC group’s dominance in manufacturing, resources, weapons, and services industries will attract countries worldwide to invest in or establish friendly relations with this region to share in its prosperity. As power centers shift to Asia, bringing peace and economic growth, the Western world may face a decline in living standards and grapple with internal challenges. These challenges could arise from issues such as Economic slowdown,Breakdown of law & order, erosion of trust in Govt., Low fertility rate, Muslim migration, democratic values being undermined by mobocracy-style elections, and demographic shifts where the existing population becomes a minority. This could lead to a new form of 21st-century neo-occupation, where emerging majorities drive the Western world into chaos, reminiscent of Middle Eastern instability, ultimately resulting in the decline of the Western world order.

How Western Sanctions on India could lead to faster decline of Western World Order

The bullying tactics from western world has elicited a defiant response from India's policymakers, who view it as an infringement on sovereignty and energy security. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration has publicly rebuffed U.S. tariff pressures, emphasizing India's right to secure affordable energy while subtly adjusting supply chains to mitigate impacts. In retaliation, India has accelerated its pivot toward the Russia-India-China (RIC) troika and the expanded BRICS bloc, which now includes 11 members after incorporating Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE in 2024. The RIC alliance, originally proposed in the late 1990s by Russian diplomat Yevgeny Primakov, has seen a revival in 2025, with Russia advocating for its strengthening to counter U.S. dominance, China expressing support, and India showing tentative openness. Together, RIC nations account for 36.7 percent of global GDP in 2024, forming the backbone of BRICS and enabling coordinated efforts in logistics, energy, technology, and national currency settlements. At the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin in August 2025, discussions on reviving RIC underscored its potential as a short-term counter to an unpredictable U.S. under Trump.To ensure economic prosperity amid these pressures, India is diversifying its trade away from Western dependencies. Russian oil imports to India hit 1.55 million barrels per day in early September 2025, up from 1.49 million in August, with plans to increase by 10-20 percent later in the month despite new EU and U.S. measures. This has boosted sectors like manufacturing and IT services, where India's exports to BRICS nations grew by 20 percent in the first half of 2025, including a record 2.5 million tons of Russian fertilizers meeting 89 percent of India's NPK needs. Bollywood and tourism are also expanding influence; Indian films and cultural exports to BRICS markets increased by 15 percent in 2024, while tourism from Russia and China surged post-sanctions, contributing to a projected 7 percent GDP growth for India in 2025. Meanwhile, Russia's economy grew at 3.2 percent in 2025 despite over 15,000 Western sanctions, highlighting the ineffectiveness of such measures and encouraging further decoupling from the West.This strategic shift, combined with China's and Russia's ongoing decoupling—evident in China's 83.4 percent debt-to-GDP ratio versus the U.S.'s 122 percent—accelerates the erosion of the Western-dominated world order. BRICS nations are projected to drive 58 percent of global GDP growth between 2024 and 2029, compared to just 25 percent from G7 countries, positioning RIC and BRICS as frontrunners in economic groupings and global affairs. The bloc's 2025 summit in Rio adopted 126 commitments across governance, finance, AI, climate, and security, emphasizing a multipolar system over U.S. hegemony. Regions like South America, Africa, and Asia are increasingly aligning with BRICS for growth; for instance, BRICS represents over 4 billion people and has attracted interest from countries like Mexico and Malaysia, fostering South-South cooperation. This alignment is driving a significant decline in dollar-based trade, with BRICS pushing de-dollarization through local currency settlements—China and Russia already conduct 90 percent of bilateral trade in rubles and yuan—and proposals for a common BRICS currency or digital unit. South-South trade has grown manifold, rising 20 percent annually since 2022, while dollar dominance in global reserves dropped to 58 percent in 2025 from 70 percent in 2000.The Western world, grappling with internal divisions—such as high debt levels averaging 106.4 percent debt-to-GDP across major nations—and overreliance on hegemonic policies, continues to falter. The U.S.'s protectionism,abondoning allies and partners and withdrawal from global roles indicate implicit acceptance of U.S Empire's decline and fragmentation into competing blocs with BRICS signal the end of unipolar dominance, as evidenced by the rise of multipolarity where power is distributed among at least four centers: the U.S., China, Russia, and India. Persisting with sanctions against Asian powers like India has proven counterproductive, as seen in India's increased Russian imports and BRICS' gold premiums in Shanghai diverging from Western markets, heralding a new economic system. Ultimately, these policies are hastening the West's decline, paving the way for a BRICS-led multipolar order.

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